Determinants of Cropping Pattern Change under Climate and Market Stress: Evidence from the Pachamalai Tribal Region, Tiruchirappalli District, Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Cropping pattern transformation has emerged as a critical issue in agricultural economics due to increasing climate variability, water scarcity, labour migration, market volatility, and changing farm resource endowments. This study investigates the determinants of cropping pattern change among 500 farm households in the Pachamalai Tribal Region of Tiruchirappalli District, Tamil Nadu, India. Primary data were collected through a structured household questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, chi-square analysis, ANOVA, and binary logistic regression were used to identify socio-economic and environmental factors influencing crop choice transitions. The results reveal a substantial shift from traditional subsistence crops toward market-oriented and water-efficient crops such as millets, maize, turmeric, and vegetables. Water scarcity, expected profitability, labour shortages, and rainfall uncertainty were identified as major drivers of change. Regression findings indicate that irrigation access, landholding size, and market incentives significantly increase the probability of cropping pattern transformation, whereas ageing farm households reduce adaptive responsiveness. The study concludes that tribal agriculture in hill ecosystems is undergoing structural transition driven by economic rationality and environmental stress. Policy interventions focused on irrigation resilience, market access, extension support, and climate-smart farming are essential for sustainable livelihood improvement.