The Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Fertilizer Consumption on Human Development in Vietnam

Abstract

In the context of Vietnam promoting economic growth together with sustainable development, it is important to evaluate the impact of economic growth and agricultural emissions on human development. This study uses time series data from 1990 to 2023 and the ARDL model to examine the relationship between GDP per capita, fertilizer quantity, CO₂ emissions in agriculture, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that there is a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. In the long run, GDP per capita and fertilizer quantity have a positive and statistically significant impact on HDI, while CO₂ emissions from agriculture have a negative impact. These findings indicate that agriculture both improves human well-being and harms environmental quality. Therefore, Vietnam should maintain economic growth, improve agricultural production efficiency, use fertilizer more efficiently, and reduce emissions in agriculture to enhance HDI.